The Market Still Likes Hildog or Introducing The Barack Obama Death Spread

Why is Hillary smiling maniacally? Well, perhaps she follows intrade, where Hildog POTUS contracts are still trading north of $5.oo.*

My friend Spill confided in me a couple months ago that he had been having this recurring nightmare--that on Tuesday November 4, millions of Obama supporters would wake up and suddenly realize "wait..I'm about to vote for a black to be president?" and usher in four years for this guy or something.

Well, bad news, Spilly; it looks like the political betting markets are indicating a worse nightmare for you--the RFK scenario.

As many of you might remember from my TBW column**, I'm a big fan of those political betting markets and interpolating meaning from different "spreads" created by the relative value [bunch of boring math shit]. Point is, I was able to isolate a "John McCain death spread" that basically said the markets are betting there is a 3% chance that McCain would die, he being an old man and all.

So as of June 14, Hildog POTUS contracts are trading for $5 even though she's been mathematically eliminated from the Democratic Nomination. Hell, she's even conceded, meaning there has to be some other "way" in which she can get to that POTUS; otherwise whence the $5 contracts?

Clearly, the markets are betting that someone is going to try to assassinate Obama. Frankly, I'm surprised it hasn't happened more often. I mean a lot of people dislike Bush 43, and no one, not one deranged soul in our nation of 300 MM+ or among our countless foreign enemies, has even tried to kill him.

Why am I certain this is a death spread and not some sort of clandestine Clintonesque power play? Well, for one thing, Hildog DemNom contracts are trading below her POTUS contracts, meaning the market thinks it's more likely that she becomes President than she becomes nominee. Meaning people are betting on the iteratively small chance that she gets the Veep nod and Obama dies, since that's the only way she becomes President after the convention.

Anyway, the probability appears to be only 1 in 20, and I'd be a bit sad were the unlikely to occur, since I find Obama almost tolerable for a Dem. I think Hildog would have to suppress a cackle or two though.

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*Y'all know the drill-event occurence in a contract pays $100, so for a 1/4 of the cost of a lap dance, you can get a Hildog contract that pays $100 if she seizes the White House.

**TBW.com last updated August 2006