Gee Six Sigma Shenanigans

It's a toolbook alright.

This morning at my office there was a presentation given on "six sigma", a Way of Life dedicated to the elimination of errors in industrial processes (and a very simplistic appropriation of third-day-of-class high school level stats almost on par with this guy's*).

Well, there was supposed to be a presentation, but the guy couldn't work the DVD for a solid and delightfully awkward 20 minutes. 0 for 1 I guess. What's that, like, negative three sigma? Gonna be tough to get that average back up to 3.4 errors per million starting off like that.

There was also a detailed (and related) presentation on delivering high quality, error free products to our customers--an interesting discussion since we basically sell a commodity (megawatts) that is inherently error-free as constrained by several laws of physics, and we don't really have "customers" (just trading counterparties), but whatevski; it made for some nice lifewasting. Did I mention we have a lot of Rice MBAs working here?

Incidentally, we are one of the top three energy producers in this nation.

*worst book of the new century, by the way. Bad math, bad prose, made up anecdotes as evidence. Prof. Damien called him the biggest fraud since Deepak Chopra**, and I agree with him.

**great cameo in the Love Guru, btw, Deep***.

***As Jack Handey once said, "if you ever come across a footnote within a footnote, just be prepared for the ride of your life."

Coming soon...

A review of the top ten bars* in Austin, dictatorially rated by me, Michael Fitz Mortimer Pemulis IV. A detailed breakdown of circumnavigability**, leopard content, noise pollution, lighting, and bar access shall be included.

*That old C&A will be high on this list, but it won't top it.

**very important, as will be explained

Stark Contrast to the Hildog or The Ukraine is Not Weak!

Here's Ukranian Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko, a 21st century Eleanor of Aquitane if there ever were one. If Hildog looked like her, I think I woulda switched sides.

The Market Still Likes Hildog or Introducing The Barack Obama Death Spread

Why is Hillary smiling maniacally? Well, perhaps she follows intrade, where Hildog POTUS contracts are still trading north of $5.oo.*

My friend Spill confided in me a couple months ago that he had been having this recurring nightmare--that on Tuesday November 4, millions of Obama supporters would wake up and suddenly realize "wait..I'm about to vote for a black to be president?" and usher in four years for this guy or something.

Well, bad news, Spilly; it looks like the political betting markets are indicating a worse nightmare for you--the RFK scenario.

As many of you might remember from my TBW column**, I'm a big fan of those political betting markets and interpolating meaning from different "spreads" created by the relative value [bunch of boring math shit]. Point is, I was able to isolate a "John McCain death spread" that basically said the markets are betting there is a 3% chance that McCain would die, he being an old man and all.

So as of June 14, Hildog POTUS contracts are trading for $5 even though she's been mathematically eliminated from the Democratic Nomination. Hell, she's even conceded, meaning there has to be some other "way" in which she can get to that POTUS; otherwise whence the $5 contracts?

Clearly, the markets are betting that someone is going to try to assassinate Obama. Frankly, I'm surprised it hasn't happened more often. I mean a lot of people dislike Bush 43, and no one, not one deranged soul in our nation of 300 MM+ or among our countless foreign enemies, has even tried to kill him.

Why am I certain this is a death spread and not some sort of clandestine Clintonesque power play? Well, for one thing, Hildog DemNom contracts are trading below her POTUS contracts, meaning the market thinks it's more likely that she becomes President than she becomes nominee. Meaning people are betting on the iteratively small chance that she gets the Veep nod and Obama dies, since that's the only way she becomes President after the convention.

Anyway, the probability appears to be only 1 in 20, and I'd be a bit sad were the unlikely to occur, since I find Obama almost tolerable for a Dem. I think Hildog would have to suppress a cackle or two though.

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*Y'all know the drill-event occurence in a contract pays $100, so for a 1/4 of the cost of a lap dance, you can get a Hildog contract that pays $100 if she seizes the White House.

**TBW.com last updated August 2006

Gossip Girls

We'll also be talking a lot about Gossip Girls here. A lot.

"Who am I? Why am I here?"

A pretty choice quote by Admiral Stockdale to open the 1992 vice presidential debate. It didn't really work out for him or his running mate, Ross Perot, but it's a question worth answering, since there are literally dozens of other blogs out there on this here internets.

Pretty much the first day of b-school, they really emphasize one point: specialize. As a manager, you should focus on what you do best and only what you do best, ignoring the need for diversification since your shareholders can create their own portfolios and "homemake" diversification without your clumsy, agency-conflicted interference. I think the same applies to blogs since it is very easy to click from one to the other, each being the best at its own little niche.

But fuck it--I'm an empire builder. Thus, this blog will be 'focused' on all sorts of inane lagniappe, namely: political betting markets; baseball; CMBS/Treasury spreads and synthetic fixed income arbitrage; The Hills; deconstructing bad financial journalism; frequent footnoting*; fund dating stories from my sordid past**; assiduous arrogance, reviews of non-existent albums; life in Austin and Houston; my current beta-neutral long/short positions; the upcoming 90210 redux; mailbags.

So welcome to the show folks; I'll be updating at least once a week. Here's that Stockdale debate. Fast forward to about minute 7 and prepare to be amused:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5Jbmaq4YHA

*denoted thusly
**Everyone gets codenames, of course, as will all male friends. So no need to worry about your exploits on East 6th St., Greaseball.